Expected Closeness or Mobilisation : Why Do Voters Go to the Polls ?
نویسنده
چکیده
Using data of Swiss referenda from 1981 to 1999, this paper presents new empirical results which allow us to discriminate better between the decision and mobilisation hypotheses of electoral participation. First, the theoretical considerations are presented which lead to these hypotheses are presented as well as the theory of expressive voting, and a survey of the available empirical evidence is given. Then, we describe the empirical approach before we come to its results. They are much in line with the mobilisation but do not support the decision hypothesis. They are, however, also only partly compatible with the theory of expressive voting.
منابع مشابه
Polls, coalitions and strategic voting under proportional representation
How do polls influence strategic voting under proportional representation? This paper derives a strategic calculus of voting for coalitions that generates testable predictions about the effects of polls on strategic voting in elections involving four or more parties. Incentives of leftist voters to vote for a centrist over a noncentrist party are shown to increase with the difference in expecte...
متن کاملWhat Makes Voters Turn Out: The Effects of Polls and Beliefs
We use laboratory experiments to test for one of the foundations of the rational voter paradigm —that voters respond to probabilities of being pivotal. We exploit a setup that entails stark theoretical effects of information concerning the preference distribution (as revealed through polls) on costly participation decisions. The data reveal several insights. First, voting propensity increases s...
متن کاملDo Polls InBuence the Vote?
PO L L S P ROV I D E I N F O R M AT I O N A B O U T how well the parties are doing in a campaign. That information may affect voters’ perceptions of the various parties’ chances of winning in a Arst past the post (FPP) system such as Canada or the chances of being part of a coalition government in a proportional representation (PR) system. By affecting voters’ expectations about the outcome of ...
متن کاملCoordination and turnout in large elections
Competitive elections are frequently decided by which side can generate larger turnout on polling day. When decided on whether to turnout voters are assumed to balance the cost of going to the polls with the prospect of making a difference in the election outcome. We present a stochastic model of turnout where voters receive information about current turnout propensities of the voting populus t...
متن کاملMobilizing Sophisticated Donors: What Candidate Posts Do Attract Intra- and Inter-district Donations?
Why do voters finance the candidates, even the out-of-district one? Previous studies suggest physical closeness, ideological appeal, material gain, and personal resource. Yet studies based on self-report survey or aggregate-level post-election data blur the causal linkage between candidate’s appeal and voters’ motivation. In this article, we combine and exploit two unique datasets from a candid...
متن کامل